Alternate Futures

HIllary_Profile.jpg

As we wind down to the end of this election campaign, I'd like to point out a few things.

1) If Kerry wins, the entry in wikipedia for "phyrric victory" will be replaced by a picture of John Forbes Kerry. A Kerry victory secures the White House, but he almost certainly will not win the Senate and he wont get the House and a vast majority of state legislatures who are also Republican in name and conservative in action. Kerry wins a nation with one foot in the "war canoe" and the other foot on the "peace pier". To quote the lyrics of Sting: "Every breath you take, Every move you make, Ill be watching you..." - Every move Kerry makes will be under the microscope by an increasingly influential blog media. Clinton was nearly undone by one website, hows kerry going to survive a relentless attacks by the blog media ( visual reference : Death Star - rebel X wings fighters ) For those of you hoping that this will be a return to the "blue dress" years, forget it. Kerry is much more likely to be Carter-like, than Clinton-like. And gosh,weren't the Carter years a hoot, Jimmy Carter augered into the ground so hard that the Democrats are still trying to crawl out of that hole. Four years of Kerry, and the "Birchers" are going to seem like middle of the road voters.

2) Whether or not Bush wins,this is the last time you will ever see George W. Bush campaign for anything. Based on his brothers clear statements, it may very well be the last time any Bush family member runs for anything at the national level. Come what may on November 2nd, This is the end of the Bush Dynasty.

3) Second terms are almost always problematic for Presidents. Nixon Reagan and Clinton were all damaged by their second terms. What the left gets out of a second Bush term is a scandal that let's them define Bush in the way they want that best suits their purposes.

4) Cheney, Bush's Vice President,has no intenetion of ever being President, leaving a large vacuum in the Republican field.

5) Kerry's base is hardly "excited for Kerry". They settled, and they know it. The largest amount of 'Swing" in the votes as of late is not towards Bush or Kerry, but towards - Ralph Nader. The logic being if they are going to lose, might as well throw some weight behind a guy who believes what they believe.

6) Heres how it works - A Vote for Nader is actually Vote For Clinton! If Kerry wins, Hillary in 2008 will not be possible, If Kerry loses, its a virtually certain that the Clinton 2008 campaign will begin on November 3rd, 2004.

7) Can Hillary win in 2008? My guess is yes, she can! After 8 years of war, after an all but certain second term Bush scandal, the nation will be ready for a change. Mrs. Clinton has played the War situation with an amazing amount of political savvy, as she is a much more capable politician than the current Democrat candidate.

So Remember kids, If you Vote for Nader in 2004, you will probably get to vote for Clinton in 2008.

UPDATE: Thomas P. Barnett Explains It All For You.

Posted @ October 19, 2004 09:38 AM | Election 2004

Comments

This is the end of the Bush Dynasty.

The hell you say. I've got money on a governorship for Barbara in about 20 years.

Posted by: Jeff Harrell at October 19, 2004 10:26 AM

Sweet. Get the word out. Let's get 10% for Nader :)

Posted by: Sarah at October 19, 2004 12:08 PM

It is striking that a number of conservatives I know are planning on voting for Kerry solely because they do not want to have to worry about a Hillary! candidacy in 2008. Personally, I think that this violates Keynes' observation that, in the long run, we're all dead.

Posted by: Lurking Observer at October 19, 2004 03:04 PM

Dude, you think Bush and/or Kerry are polarizing? They can't hold a candle to Hillary. She will NEVER be president. She's got way too much baggage...not to mention that she's a dyed-in-the-wool socialist.

Posted by: tom at October 19, 2004 04:17 PM

I think she is a much better candidate than John Kerry ever was. On his best day, he is not as capable and as competent as she is on her worst day. I dont like her, but I do respect her. I do not respect John Kerry. I dont think Im alone in thinking of that.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not voting for her, but if I were a Democrat, and I knew I was going to lose, I'd be thinking seriously of voting for Nader. Kerrys only appeal was the myth that he could win. We are in an arguably unpopular war, oil is at 55 dollars a barrel, gas is over 2.00 a gallon and this is as good as he can do? A decent candidate would be walking away with this election.

I still cant tell what Kerrys position is on just about anything but I cant tell what Kerrys position is on Iraq, more troops? Less troops? no troops? what? 2 weeks before the election and I cant tell what side hes on with a key issue.

Alot of democrats have to be asking themselves "for this, I gave up Howard Dean"?

This explains why Nader is the only candidate who is showing movement, Naders numbers have gone up substantially ( for him ) since the last debate.

Naders stance on the war, while crazy, is consistent, and reflects a large number of democrat voters opionions.

Posted by: Frank Martin at October 19, 2004 05:22 PM

I'm not so sure Hillary can count on the nomination in 2008.

The Clinton legacy of good times in the 1990s will likely take on more tarnish over time as not a period of peace and prosperity but of foolish and willful ignorance of the gathering dangers that the Clinton administration was loath to seriously confront. Like it or not, Hillary will be associated with her husbands administration because she craved that association.

The Democratic Party is set to explode after losing the 2004 Presidential as the leftists go after more control and assert that Democratic Leadership Council moderation only makes the party "Republican Light." I don't know how this fight will end but a more leftist Democratic Party will marginalize itself with the electorate.

Hillary can't count on maintaining control of the DNC through this bloodbath. "Terry McAwful" has been a disaster as a party chairman, personalizing the DNC effort against Republicans as simply venting rage at George Bush rather than cultivating support through policy initiatives. Other moderate Dems aren't going to continue to allow the Clinton's to control the party after both so many defeats and won't be content to wait in line to give the brass ring to Hillary. The Clinton's have been a disaster for the Democrats. Under their watch, the Senate and House were lost and the party is well on it's way to minority status.

Hillary and Bill have become celebrities and her popularity is based on that celebrity more so than on her policy leadership. I've come to believe that the so-called Clinton communicating and political posturing have a short shelf life. Nobody seriously believed anything Bill said late in his administration. We liked our self-deluded prosperity and Bill was simply "our bastard" but largely irrelevant for much of the later stages of his Presidency. Aside from NAFTA, the capital gains tax cut and welfare reform (largely Republican efforts), what are his accomplishments besides his ability to play successful politics against the Republicans? The DOW was up and we didn't care or want anything to disturb our prosperity. These people are 9/10 people. Hillary dared not even appear at funerals for the 9/11 dead in her home state of New York for fear of embarrassing incidents.

Posted by: Gary B at October 19, 2004 08:21 PM

Many noteworthy points about HRC, thanks. For me, HRC replacing Pat Moynihan as my Senator is the perfect metaphor for the transformation of the Democratic Party in recent times from the respectable steward of a liberal viewpoint that was tempered with commonsense to an obnoxious and unserious coalition of hateful anarchists, flaky utopians, and assorted counter-productive rent-seekers. I was proud to have Moynihan represent me and I always looked to his views as positive contributors to the discourse that Frank accurately noted is fast fading. The degradation in going from DPM to HRC is staggering, and it is precisely analogous to the national party. When will the Dems hit rock bottom? Will it be when exit polls show that 2 million people would have voted for Kerry save for the repulsiveness of his most visible surrogates, including but not limited to his wife, trial lawyer running mate, Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton, and ... HRC.

Posted by: Don at October 20, 2004 02:40 PM

Excellent!

Posted by: Sallie at October 21, 2004 09:09 AM