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Door Closed - Door Open

At lunch the other day, my wife asked me:

" Now that the election is over, what are you going to write about"?

It caught me off guard for a second, but then I realized that the narcotic effect of the election had worn off and it was time to get back to work.

Before I get to talk about "What’s next", I want to address the three remaining open questions on the election.

1) Will Kerry run again in 2008?

Morton Kondracke says yes. Chris Matthews says yes. Frank Martin says no. In 2000, everyone said Gore would run again. In 2004, Gore is nowhere to be found. My guess is the same will be true of Kerry in 2008. Why? Because by 2008, Kerry will be too far to the right for what is left of the Democrat party. The Democrats will also take a beating in 2006 in the Senate and the House, leaving what remains of their party more isolated and increasingly a regional party even more beholding to George Soros and Hollywood. For Bush, far from being a ‘lame duck’ president, he will prove once and for all that “misunderestimating” the Presidents “strategery” is a huge mistake and much like Charley Brown reacting to Lucy’s football, the Dems keep falling for it every time. Bush also enjoys a luxury that few second term presidents get, and that is control of both houses of congress by his party. This will keep the uncomfortable questions at a minimum in the second term.

I see few signs that the Democrats will be able to put up a winning coalition and I see every sign that they are more interested in ideological purity rather than winning elections. I’m very disappointed in them as a party and I hope they get it together but I have my doubts.

1) Will Bush take the country to war again?

I have to say that the crystal ball is not so clear in this case. What I can say is that the world is changing very quickly since the election.

Arafat is dead, and with him the concept of state sponsored terror as a bargaining chip on the worlds stage. I do not think the Palestinians will suddenly toss down their weapons and become advocates of nonviolence, but the effectiveness of the Palestinian “freedom fighter’ is at an end. I think we will see a wide-open civil war as various parties jostle for control, but their ability to fight Israel and thus the western world is at an end. Instead they will fight each other.

The EU and the US seem to be developing a somewhat effective “good cop – bad cop” process in dealing with the other nascent islamofascist states. Today Iran announced that it would stop processing nuclear materials in preparation for weapons. It remains to be seen that they will do what they say, but it is a move in the right direction.

North Korea is isolated and an unannounced Naval blockade is underway where we are intercepting shipping and inspecting what comes in and out of North Korea with great regularity. The three main routes in and out of North Korea are currently being re-enforced with a favored Chinese method, a wall.

North Korea gains nothing by building a bomb or selling the technology to make one, but it gains everything by giving it up. Left in the current state, North Korea will expire within 10 years. We can afford to wait, North Korea cannot. My guess is that the son of the great leader will fall at the hands of his staff within the next 24 months. Chaos will reign. Out of it, China, and South Korea will agree to jointly administer the former North Korean territory. North Korea as an entity will cease to be, by my estimates prior to the 2005 election season.

Does Syria have the Iraqi weapons of Mass Destruction? My guess is yes. Will they use them against Israel? No. More likely, they will trade them for safety. Using them or brandishing makes them a target, trading them brings revenue and safety.

So back the original question, “will President Bush take the country to war again”? My guess is no. That is not to say that we will not be engaged in a great deal of covert actions all over the world at a rate unparalleled even in the cold war, but I think the full-scale invasion business is over for now.

I think the world has changed very quickly, much more quickly than I would have guessed in the days after September 11th. I don’t think the job is over by any means, but I think we have a clearer picture of what the world is going to look like. Islamofascism is losing and Democracy is winning even in places that are hostile to the West. My guess is that this trend will continue.

3) Will Iraq emerge as a stable country?

I think so. There are no Kurdish suicide bombers; there are no Shiite suicide bombers, just Sunnis. Their strategy is simple, don’t participate and make it impossible for the Shiite/Kurd coalition to maintain order. Many argue that we need more American troops to maintain order. I don’t think this is the case, as long as we keep the troop levels as they are and we concentrate on building up indigenous forces, any conflict becomes a “them versus them” battle rather than a “them versus us”. We can succeed by remembering that our job is not to colonize Iraq, but to return Iraq to its rightful owners. They are well underway to accomplishing that. The former owners of Iraq, the Tikriti tribe of the Sunnis and the Syrian Baathists are playing the losing game in this hand. Allawi has the control power of statehood and all the revenue it can produce and the alliances that will naturally result. For every smarmy New York pundit poo-pooing the idea of a free Iraq, there are 10 Iraqis working to make it so. I'm betting on the Iraqis.

My guess is that Allawi will put in place the oil revenue sharing plan similar to the ones that Alaska and Norway use. Once this is done, the whole Middle East will change very rapidly.

I find it interesting that before Bush leaves office in 2008, free elections will have been held in Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine. Who would have thought such a thing was possible back when we watched Al Gore prance around the debate stage with George W. Bush in 2000?

And that officially brings the 2004 Election season to a close.

So, what will I talk about next?

First, the Democrat party will provide a huge amount of fun in the coming years as they scramble to come to grips with where they are in relation to their base constituency, the average folk of America. Watching the Democrats stumble around desperately in search of the bathroom in the dark like a drunk in an unfamiliar house will provide hours of cheap entertainment. I will exploit it for all its worth.

Second, I am writing two books.

I may end up publishing them myself, but what the hell. It’s time. From time to time I will write posts that parallel what I am writing about in each of the two works. I will also write about the process of writing either of the two pieces.

The first is a book about “remote work” and the subsequent rise of “exurbia”. I’ve spent a good portion of the past 4 years working remotely and I’ve watched a whole revolution quietly getting underway. "remote work" as tremendous consequences to the world and its almost never talked about. I think this has good commercial opportunities. I’ve had pieces of this work in place for a while, and now it's time to put it all together. Blogging has shown me how to make time for writing and how to have the discipline to write what I want to say.

The second book is about Clifford Clinton and Frank Shaw. Frank Shaw was the Mayor of LA in the late 1930’s and was the leader of a corrupt gang that took over the reigns of city government to use for his own purposes. Clifford Clinton was the man who stopped him. His house was bombed, his car was bombed, his restaurants were torched and his family endangered. One man stood up against a large political machine and won. One man can make a difference. Cliff Clinton is one of those men.

One door closes, another opens.

UPDATE: Well if this doesnt rate a "Danny Thomas spit take", I dont know what does. This could be verrrry innnteresting.....

Posted @ November 14, 2004 05:19 PM | Current Events

Posted by: Gary B at November 15, 2004 01:26 PM

Posted by: PDS at November 15, 2004 05:28 PM

Posted by: Carl at November 15, 2004 09:43 PM

Posted by: superhawk at November 16, 2004 04:50 PM

Posted by: Frank Martin at November 16, 2004 05:58 PM