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Kim Watch: Day 4.

Here are Four scenarios that have been put forth for the sudden announcement from North Korea that they have "nukes".

Theory 1: Brinkmanship
Theory 2: Heat from the US
Theory 3: Lack of concessions
Theory 4: Pressure on Kim

Details can be found here.

Im intrigued By Theory 2 and Theory 4.

Theory 4 Brings up the rather hard to believe idea of dissent in North Korea coming to a head. I would dismiss it out of hand, except thre was the rather odd explosion in Yongbon railyard soon after the "Dear Leader" passed through. Then there was word that the large portait pictures of the "Dear Leader" throught Pyongyang had been removed or possibly defaced. Just this week there is word that he has publically announced the line of succession goes to his son and grandson.

Why now? and was there any doubt? There wasnt to me.

For support of Theory2 , there is this pice from the Boston Globe.

Key Points found within:
NORTH KOREA sold uranium in gaseous form to Libya in 2002, US officials just told Japan, South Korea, and China.

The latest turn in the nuclear crisis came after experts at the Oak Ridge laboratory reportedly concluded that uranium gas found in Libya came from North Korea.

North Korea began acquiring the means to enrich uranium from Pakistan in 1998 after the Clinton administration failed to live up to its commitments in the 1994 Agreed Framework.

In the immortal words of Science Officer Spock:

"Fascinating"

There is something that has only just occured to me. I've always been thinking that each country would be working on their own to accomplish the task of building atomic weapons. A friend of mine was channelling Enrico Fermi one day when he posed this question:

"If the theory of atomic energy is so well understood and the materials to develop them are at readily at hand, why are there not more of them ?"

The answer is either that there are more of them than we know of ( very possible) or that even if the theory is well understood it still takes a great deal of technology(read: "money")to accomplish the task.

Be let's "just suppose" this. While no one country in the 'axis of evil' can accomplish the task on their own due to limitations on each of their parts(not enough money, not enough talent, not enough land, not secure enough), perhaps, they decided to cooperate to accomplish the job and share the results? This would also allow the overall project to continue even if any one country was removed from the equation by forces outside of their control.

They would need one country with a ready supply of untraceable uranium. North Korea fits the bill nicely. They would need another with a healthy supply of ready cash. Iraq or Libya fit the bill. They would need a large area in which to test, Iran fits the bill. Perhaps Cuba also provided intelligence to see the task accomplised, as they are also a dynastic dictatorship, in danger of being overthrown without the atomic security blanket that was pulled off when the Soviet Union went away. My guess is that Castro wants it back very badly. Perhaps Venezuela is being courted as the new replacement for the badly needed cash component for this project.

And then there's Pakistan. Pakistan is probably the source of much of the talent that is driving the project. My suspicion is that A.Q. Khan developed the Pakistan project with one hand, while simultaneously handing off the data to the "other players" with the other hand.

Tie them all together with any number of newly available and unemployed atomic scientists and technical staff from the former Soviet Union, working as "consultants" and you can start to see where this theory takes us.

Two key components have been removed, Libyan and Iraqi cash, and another has been neutralized - Pakistani leadership. Now it seems that the raw materials may be our new priority.

Oh yeah, and Kims Birthday is in four days. Let's see how that goes.

Posted @ February 13, 2005 12:30 AM | Current Events

Posted by: Dave Schuler at February 13, 2005 09:31 AM

Posted by: Greg at February 13, 2005 09:30 PM