They'd said they were going to increase their strategic reserve and it looks like that's what they're doing. With only about a three weeks' supply it shouldn't be too surprising.

This is a fascinating theory!

However, I must pick a nit, just a little one.... if China's oil consumption (or purchasing) increased 31% in 2003 and 41% in 2004, that is not an increase of 72% over two years; it's an increase 85% over two years. For every barrel they bought in 2002, they bought 1*1.31 in 2003 and (1*1.31)*1.41 in 2004. 1*1.31*1.41=1.8471, which is basically an 84.7% increase. (Call it 85% because we only have two digits of accuracy in the figures presented.)

VF...

Interesting observation. I'm taking a course that's heavy into the international affairs and how they interact with US policies. One of the concerns we've been discussing recently revolves around the cozy little deal between China and Iran.

Apparently the Iranians send China oil, China in return sends them military hardware and an increased offensive military capability. Seems like this move does a couple things to further the ambitions of two nations.

Is it possible that Iran might be looking to make a move of consolidation in the western direction towards Iraq? Do you think China would be interested in having a "blockade proof" surplus of oil and petroleum products on hand if they decided to be adventurous and attack across the straits?

Add to these two prongs in different directions, how about if NK decides to behave badly at the same time?

Sounds to me like we'd have our hands VERY full.

Anyone have an opinion about this nightmare scenario?

See ya on the high ground!

MajorDad1984

Barnett has maintained that China has a growing thirst for energy and will soon be the number one importer of oil - US usage will wane as we increase efficiency and pursue alternatives.

@MajorDad
I hardly see the nightmare scenario unless looking for worst case scenarios.

Check out Thomas Barnett's blog at http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/001523.html

He has written a very influential work called The Pentagon's New Map and asserts that China is in the process of accepting globalization (and the yoke that goes with it including abiding by WTO standards, etc) and should be treated as an aspiring ally. Iran is further away - but ripe for a change in course and North Korea is a total write-off.

Stuart...I think the world would be much different today had 9/11 not happened. I would say that was something of a "nightmare" scenario, don't you?

Best that we look at the absolute blackest it can be when we go to the cupboard for the flashlight...just in case.

See you on the high ground!

MajorDad1984

For as terrible a tragedy as 9/11 was, it was more of a wakeup call like Pearl harbor, the Civil War was more of a nightmare.

It is fine to look at worst case scenarios - but they usually don't come to pass.

There are plenty of reliable indicators to show the likelihood of different scenarios occuring. The indicators are fairly positive for China... I'll roll with the odds.

Inevitably the world will not allow a single power to be the most prominent force in our world as evidenced in The Limits of Globalization and Hegemony https://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/005/212ansar.asp by Michael Brandon McClellan of the Weekly Standard. China seems to be only candidate to challenge us in any way, we know the EU isn't going to.