Varifrank: Well, while you are in the neighborhood...

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Well, while you are in the neighborhood...

Quote:

"U.S. intelligence agencies are closely watching the joint Russian-Chinese military exercises that will include anti-submarine warfare drills and an amphibious and airborne assault training.
"With the exception of soldiers, other people are not allowed to enter the area; they are only allowed to go out," the newspaper stated.

Russian and Chinese military officials have said the exercises are not aimed at any nation."

These exercises are taking place on the “Shandong Peninsula”. Where’s that you ask?

Lets take a look:

Yeah, that’s North Korea. The funny little Peninsula sticking out of the coast of China to the east of North Korea across the Yellow Sea, That’s the Shandong Peninsula.

Why do I care? Well, I’m always interested in the movements of mass conscript armies just from an economics standpoint, particularly when they are Chinese and Russian. From just an economics standpoint it’s a big hit to a countries economy to do a war game of this size, particularly when the Chinese have to hire out to the Russians for Sealift as part of the exercise. I also note that as of late, the Chinese have been trying to get their hands on as much oil as they can find and paying whatever price necessary to get it, yet Chinese civilians are complaining about “shortage”, which makes me ask “ ok, who’s got the oil?”. Can you say “Chinese Strategic Reserve”? Sure, I knew you could. So that explains where the oil has gone, its almost as if they were preparing for something that takes lots and lots of oil.

Now, I think this is just another bare faced Communist Chinese threat against Taiwan, but let's take a step back for a second and look at it again.

The Chinese and Russians are now engaged in a massive Amphibious "war game" in the Yellow sea, just across the water from North Korea. It’s significant not just for “Who” but “Where”. These are war games that, for some reason don’t include observers from South Korea, Taiwan, Japan or the United States – or North Korea.

One of the reasons why you hold war games is to demonstrate to your potential enemies your capabilities. You invite them to be observers so they can see what’s going on. You also do it so there wont be any “misunderstandings”, and some low level officer mistakes a test missile firing as the real thing and before you know it, World War III gets started, and that would be bad. You also know full well that the “observers” are reporting everthing they see, which makes the other side spend months and months doing “analysis” while your diplomats do more work to see that a war doesn’t have to be fought at all ( See: Sun Tzu – Rules of War). None of that is happening in these “games” even for close Chinese Allies, like say, the North Koreans…

Now, The article I referenced says that large numbers of civilian populations on the Shandong Peninsula are being displaced.

To which I ask;

Why?

If it’s just a “war game”, what’s the “big whoop” over civilian populations? I’m sure security is an issue, but its Communist China for crying out loud, its only one step removed from a prison camp as it is.

Unless….

Unless this isn’t a “War game”, but the preparation for staging for a lightning invasion of North Korea.

Not by us, but by the Communist Chinese and the Russians, who both share a border and an unfortunate history with the Hermit Kingdom.

There are only three routes out of North Korea into China. The Chinese have spent the last 4 years building elaborate fences to control those three exits. The very last thing the Chinese want is millions of famine suffering refugees streaming into China, and the same goes for Russia.

And the very last thing either of these countries wants is one more place where the United States has allies sharing a border with their country. One way or another, North Korea is going to fall, its just a question of will it be a “controlled fall” or a total catastrophe. If nothing is done, catastrophe is assured, therefore, something must be done, but the question is “by whom”. China has a great interest in seeing that it’s a “controlled fall”, and so does Russia, and they both have an interest in seeing that we stay out of it. We don’t think about it much, but our actions in Afghanistan and the rest of the –Stans has significantly irritated the Russians and the Chinese, because their once distant provinces are now being used for staging of US Military assets. This gets the people in charge of the Russian and Chinese military assets quite upset. Remember how upset we got when Grenada just built a runway that was long enough to host MIGs? It’s like that, only worse.

I’m not saying I know anything that you don’t. I’m just saying, keep an eye on these guys this could get interesting. When people say they are moving civilian populations for “war games” I think East Anglia and “Operation Fortitude”. I think the placement of this particular “war game” is very interesting.

Remember, If they wanted to simulate a Taiwan invasion then why not invade Hainan Island as a ‘war game” rather than a peninsula in the Yellow Sea that just happens to have the same tidal patterns of the Korean Peninsula?

Remember – Geography is history.
(Inchon. I’m thinking Inchon here…)

Update: And what are these exercises called?
Operation Crouching Chinese Tiger, Hidden Russkie? Nah.
Operation Rustbucket and Vodka Tumbler? Nah.
Operation Recapture National Pride? Nah.
Openation "Is that A Kalishnakov in your pocket or are you just glad to see me comrade"? Nah.
Operation Communist Nostalgia Tour? Nah....

Its "Peace Mission 2005"

George Orwell - Call your office!

UPDATE II: I wasnt aware that the US and South Korea are also doing a "war game" at the same time.

Seems like this is 'war game' season for everyone in or around Korea, except for North Korea, who has decided instead to host Ted Turner in a "peace mission". The poor bastards, I almost feel sorry for them.

Posted @ August 23, 2005 01:13 PM | Current Affairs

So, the Russians are finally moving to take back Port Arthur, no?

Posted by: Captain Ned at August 23, 2005 05:42 PM

It sure looks suspicious, doesnt it! I cant see China giving the Russians back Port Arthur as it also means giving back a ton manchuria, but there might be something else in it.

Posted by: varifrank at August 23, 2005 05:53 PM

I just hope they keep them Russkie subs in their respective ports. I don't think Britain, America, Australia and Japan have enough rescue vehicles to cover their losses.

Posted by: Badge 2211 at August 23, 2005 09:33 PM

There is a better explaination for the Chinese oil problems here:

http://pekingduck.org/archives/002831.php

Basically, the state-run company that imports oil has to sell it at state-controlled price. That was fine when the price was artifically high. Now that oil is more expensive, they don't want to sell it for the same price. The ministry that controls prices, however, doesn't want to raise the price, because that would hurt exports. Since exports are crucial to their economy, they have to keep oil prices as low as possible.

So the upshot is that the Chinese people are being taxed to keep export goods cheap for American consumers. Crazy world, yes it is.

Posted by: Rob at August 24, 2005 10:52 AM

"The funny little Peninsula sticking out of the coast of China to the east of North Korea across the Yellow Sea, That’s the Shandong Peninsula."

Uhm. I make the Yellow sea to lie to North Korea's, uh, West?

I mean, machts nicht -- pilots have navigated across whole continents without knowing one way from another -- but I am a bit confused.

Where does SoKo stand on this? I gather that the SoKo gov't is rather nervous about having the North fail gracefully, a la East Germany, because the cost of re-integrating their northern cousins into a modern economy would be staggering -- as it was for West Germany. If Russia, China, or a partnership of both prop up a new more pliable communist strongman puppet in NoKo would SoKo make happy noises?

Posted by: pouncer at August 24, 2005 01:03 PM

> The poor bastards, I almost feel sorry for them.

Sorry for who? The Gargoyle? Feh.

I think China is concerned with NoKo's nukes, but doesn't want to give the US too much credit for dealing with whatever it is. They've probably gotten concessions from us to look the other way if they take him out, as long as they leave SoKo alone.

This way they also get some practice for invading Taiwan, too.

> If Russia, China, or a partnership of both prop up a new more pliable communist strongman puppet in NoKo would SoKo make happy noises?

SoKo can gargle whatever noise it wants. It's not in a position to dictate terms to anyone involved.

...and even a puppet state is probably going to be much, much better for the NoKos than what they have.

> So the upshot is that the Chinese people are being taxed to keep export goods cheap for American consumers. Crazy world, yes it is.

Nominally, yes. OT1H, China is doing it to build their industrial base. OTOH, it's not like the Chinese people have much say over it, do they?

In real fact there is a serious disjoint between the IP value the USA produces and its technical cash remuneration to the USA. This goes double where China and Russia are involved.

This is, I'd lay major bets, where a tremendous proportion of the trade imbalances go to.

If we had decent metrics of the amount of piracy going on -- software, multimedia, whatever -- we'd almost certainly find ourselves with something much closer to a trade equivalence than the official numbers show.

Posted by: OBloodyHell at August 27, 2005 02:04 AM

For some reason I was just now allowed to sign in for comments. Nothing to say on this particular thread other than, I hope we are keeping a close eye on all this. And, keep up the good writing. Please, not a demand, but a polite request.

Posted by: Luther McLeod at August 28, 2005 07:12 PM

Two points:

--EVERY YEAR the ROK and US have this exercise and people act as though it's the First One Ever. Even the DPRK reax.

--Here's another interesting item: Six Party Talks. Think there's something interesting as a message one could send this way?

Posted by: Chap at September 19, 2005 06:22 PM

its not the exercise itself that I find interesting, its the placement and the players.

Posted by: varifrank at September 19, 2005 10:25 PM