« Thank you for delaying my flight | Main | Its all about the logistics »

OpFor: Prepping the Battlespace

I completely concur with this assessment by Opfor.

In warfare, most of the time you try to create a situation where the enemy can leave the battlefield. Its easier to fight people who are on the run than if they are in entrenched defended location. In this case however it appears the Israelis are creating the conditions to keep Hezbollah right where they are at. I think this is for two purposes. First, if you remember the last time the Israelis went into Lebanon, they rolled up the PLO pretty quick, but then the world stepped in and gave the PLO exile elsewhere. I dont think the Israelis are going to let this happen again. With the current actions by Israel, even if you wanted to give exile to Hezbollah, there would be no way to make it happen. I think that is a large part of their intent.Second, I think the Israelis, unlike the rest of the Arab world, realize that the cold war is over and the worry of the middle eastern brushfire starting a bigger war between the US and the Soviet Union is no longer a throttling factor. Fundametally, Iran and Hezbollah have made a serious error by saying that this is a war, because for the first time in a very long time, the Israelis can give them one, and they are doing just that. Unlike our Armed Forces, the Israelis arent looking for peace, they are looking for victory.

I think we are within 72 hours of an outright lightning speed invasion of southern Lebanon. Watch for heavy airstrikes in the Bekka valley in the 12 hours prior and for word of more Israeli reserves being called up. I think that the Iranian anti-shipping cruise missiles have put a serious crimp in the plan, but I suspect they will also be dealt with shortly.

I do not rule out attacks on Syrian airfields in the next two days. Israel must remove any hope of resupply from Iran and the only way to do that now is by air from Syria.

My only prediction at this time is that no matter how bad this gets, Israel will still be here when its over but I have my doubts about Syria and Hezbollah. Iran has moved its pawn out into the field and I think the Israelis are about to chop it off.

This time, there will be no face saving "Cease fire" to save the Arabs from defeat. This is going to get alot worse before it gets better.

Posted @ July 16, 2006 06:32 PM | Current Affairs

Comments

http://www.brook.edu/FP/projects/nucwcost/madm.htm

Given all the rhetoric right back up to the President of Iran and the talk from Hizbollah of bigger and better weapons, could all this be a strategic trap with something like above as the wmd of choice against the Israeli military? It gets around Iran's delivery platform problem and they could even claim self defense. Opfor's classic approach to softening up and moving in plays right to this strategy of a nuclear mine.

It just seems like something is being orchestrated by Iran and Hizbollah that is not to be expected. Iran either has the money or technology (in spite of comments by others that they are several years away from a nuke) to make something like this happen. Almost like a suicide WMD.

Posted by: vjmaury at July 17, 2006 02:29 AM