Hoorah, Varifrank! May your words be prophetic! Hezbollah needs to become a synonym for burnt toast. On another note, don't the Dhims equate defeat with winning?

My biggest question is what about Syria. If the strategy you propose unfolds (and it's a great way to deal with the majority of Hizballah) then once the trap is sprung there can be no stopping until the Israelis reach the sea. Would Syria risk widening the war by attacking to save their clients in Lebanon. If they did does Israel have the military strength to close and reduce the pocket while simultaneously fighting off the Syrians to their rear?

What a "Kick Butt" post!! Thanks. This is why I keep checking in with Varifrank. I couldn't agree more with your sentiments. Let's hope that you're right on with these thoughts.

From the very begining, i had the same ideas, that Hezbo is done.

From the first days, hearing Nasrallah speak, well, his bloviating sounds just like Baghdad Bob.

I do hope you are right.
One thing I keep hearing from family & friends in israel is how everyone (and I mean everyone) is itching for a fight. The vast majority in a position to fight want to be called up to the reserves. Let me repeat that, the vast majority want to fight. They have had enough.

I think there's another play going on here. We have heard ad naseum about Israel using 'disproportionate' force. However, if Hezbollah is as good as or better than they are, then the applied Israeli force is no longer disproportionate. This takes away one of the UN and Europe's favorite arguements.

If you notice what is happening in Bint Jbail it seems to agree the idea of setting traps for Hezbullah. Israel keeps "withdrawing" while Hezbullah keeps reinforcing it with crack troops. Then Israel starts bombing the city where everyone was whining about "why didn't they use air support?"

Are you sure it's a good idea to inform people about this ahead of time?

I hope your optimism is justified. But I've been hearing this sort of analysis for years, and it never is. Maybe if Sharon was still alive.

Wretchard over at Belmont Club has been thinking along similar lines and I'm inclined to agree. Hez is a well-trained guerilla force, but they're still a guerilla force. And they've been rope-a-doped into fighting a conventional army on the army's terms. Worse for them, even when they start figuring out just how badly they've been had, they've puffed up their image so much now that their defeat will be ten times as humiliating.

Much was made of the announcement that the Knesset had decided not to go after Syria, with people scrambling to opine breathlessly that Israel had lost its nerve. But Syria's basically irrelevant strategically and, y'know, Bibi Netanyahu's got a smile on his face.

I wish you were right, but frankly, I think you are fantasizing. The disinformation campaign you describe is more than a fractious democracy is likely to be able to pull off.

I watched Fox News as they interviewed returning Golani Brigade kids. These were not hardened troops - although some had been in Gaza - but their reactions seemed honest. Do you think that these were intelligence agents just pretending to be troops so they could fool everyone via Fox News? Sorry.

As for your expected big punch tactics, the question is: why so late in the game? That runs a huge risk of having the war stopped by outside pressure before the move is made.

I think a much more likely explanation is that the untested leadership, with a political appointee labor union leader as defense minister, believed the Chief of Staff when he said that airpower would do the job. It is a seductive belief, and it has fooled governments a number of times.

Then they tried a raid - recce in force - and got their hats handed to them.

Meanwhile they were making claims - in one of the first days they said they had "degraded Hezbollah 50%" - while the rocket attacks continued at the same pace, and the size of rockets increased.

Furthermore, their tanks are no match for large IED's and some of the anti-tank rockets Hezbollah has (unlike the US and Britain, they don't have the latest generation armor).

I hope they go charging in and kick butt. And there is a lot of activity on the border right this minute, so maybe they are. We shall see.

The diplomatic manuvers appear to be Isreal deciding to be reasonable in order to get Hezbollah to decide to be insane. I think Israel is suckering Hezbollah on every level they can.

Yes, and the security council's decision this week looked like a feint to me. Because the same day the Defense minister came out and said to the Israeli people : "This is a war we must win and we know we have the support of the Israeli people and they will go to the Security council again in a few days and 30,000 troops were called up.
Then comes on another guy and he says ..just in case.
30,000? Just ..in case of ???

I never heard of spending money for nothing.
Not with the JOOS.
Awfully strange to quit a war with the majority of Israelis crying for complete extermination of the Palestinian Authority (Poll: Israeli Insider) and I suspect the same for Hizbullah. Unless Olmert has gone belly up.

One message for Israel ,
Another one for the the world.

And now this..
There's no proof..
Could be wishful thinking,
Nazarella is not reading the blogs , he will be as confused as we are, so who knows?

I had the same idea as your post, I didn't know how they would do it as you have analyzed all the details. It's the obvious thing to do, they may have planed it but who knows.
a moonbat wouldn't think of this they are too busy supporting terrorists so this , if it happens will completely blindside the Canadian Leftist Press.
It's real quiet out there the last two days ...seems too quiet.
.

I like the Cannae scenario. But Israel might go with the lower-risk WWI scenario: slow, steady attrition. Attack the fortified position, killing the defenders. Drop back. Watch Hez celebrate as they reoccupy it. Attack and kill the new batch of defenders. Repeat until they run out of troops willing to go into the meatgrinder. No civilians left in the area after the first few cycles, no high-risk armored breakthroughs or amphibious assaults, no need to learn the next set of defenses. Just lather, rinse, repeat.

On the other hand...

The Israelis do seem to be testing their enemies strengths and weaknesses. They dont seem to want to hang on to any real estate for very long, and I'm sure that is driving the hezbos crazy right now.

I suspect a large part of this process is to learn how they are being resupplied as well as to stress the exiting supplies of hezbollah.

So far, they seem to be playing it very smart. Let's hope they dont run out of time before this all plays out.

The only problem with this analysis is 1973, when Israel almost lost. The first few days went terribly. The Egyptians had broken through in Sinai, and the Golan was almost overrun by Syrian tanks (who had a 1500-260 numerical advantage over the tanks Israel had emplaced up on Golan). Sharon's daring in the south, incredible and unbelieveable bravery by a handful of desperate tankers (Google Zvika Greengold, Shmuel Askarov and Avigdor Kahalani), plus Nixon resupplying Israel with lots of planes in a hurry, turned the tide, but Israel could have lost in 1973.

Things may really be going slowly.

But there are tons of misinformation about.

AMEN !!

Fantastic Varifrank, You give words to our feelings. Hizbollah is a cancer that has to eradicated from the face of our beautiful earth. We pray this time there are no hiccups, no cease fire, no pause, no break . . . . just a swift, sweeping, total strike that will amputate this diseased limb so the cancer does not spread.

Ding - ding- ding...He gets it right(or at least I think so). An interesting point to consider also, is that every time we got a few launchers, the Defense Minister or someone would "confidently predict" that the rockets would soon stop coming. Fishy, in my opinion, because anyone with an ounce of sense knows that there are still a lot of rockets held by Hizballah, and that we haven't destroyed them all by a long shot. These statements are meant to goad Nasrallah into keeping up the rocket fire - which only strengthens our determination in Israel to keep on fighting, and neutralizes the left opposition here. How can a lefty politician call for a ceasefire when a third of the country is in bomb shelters?

Don't for a minute think that Hizballah is not reading the blogs - I am sure they are. So why am I coming out and agreeing to this (and giving them a hint as to what to do to win?) Because as a guerilla fighter he has to "supply the merchandise" and killing a few IDF soldiers is not enough. He has to keep his troops motivated also, and the only thing going for him is the rocket fire into Israel.

Today's "massacre" in Quana (where they got what they wanted all along - 57 civilians killed, about 20 children, even though the IDF has repeatedly warned them to leave)will be a turning point. Nasrallah can't quit now even if he wanted to - he has to supposedly avenge these deaths. And guess what, Olmert came out this morning with a measured statement saying that the place was a launching pad for hundreds of rockets into Israel, and although we are sorry that civilians got killed, the responsibility is on Hizballah.

His worst nightmare is about to begin - because noone is going to force Israel into a ceasefire this time - and he can't back down either. And the 20/21 year old soldiers fighting? Not only do they know that they have to win in order to ensure Israel survives, they have spent their adolescence seeing friends/parents/teachers, etc. die in suicide bombings - with little in their control to stop it. NOW they can go full out and kill the bad guys.

Interesting analysis. Hope you're right. Just one point though: your European conscript remark was a bit wide of the mark. The British abolished conscription around 1963, the Dutch around 1988, and I don't think many other countries in that area still have conscript armies. That doesn't detract from your remark that Israel simply can't afford to lose (that they are in a unique position), nor that they have unique qualities in comparison, of course. But conscription, nah - that ended with the cold war for most "western" Europeans.

Varifrank, I do hope that you are correct, but I also would not underestimate the ability of the Party of God (Hezbollah) to sway public opinion in democratic countries. Sadly, if the U.S. is any indication, a large percentage of people don't think: they feel. And feelings can be easily swayed by images and words.

I probably should have said just "conscripts" instead of "european conscripts". I did not mean to disparage europeans as much as point out that conscripts are very often not motivated in the same way that IDF troops are motivated.

"This is our time to rise to the challenge, put on the helmets and the bullet proof vests and make sure that the northern border is secure.

We shall fulfill any mission in a most effective manner, in face of any challenge.

If we shall not fulfill our mission we shall forfeit the right to exist.

We shall not lose this war, which we did not start.

Our duty is to serve as a defense force of the Jewish People, and to secure the peace of mind of the civilians in northern Israel.

If we shall not do it, no one will do it in our place.

For two thousand years we waited for the establishment of the Jewish State, and we are not going to roll back because a bunch of terrorists assume that they can scare us.

He who cannot defend Liberty does not deserve Liberty.

If we will not be able to fight until our last drop of blood, in order to secure the Liberty of our People on its own soil, our People will not enjoy Liberty.

There is time to talk and there is time to act. At this time, when missiles and Katyushas afflict the North all the way to Haifa, in addition to the two kidnapped soldiers, the ten soldiers killed and the dozens injured, it is time to fight and not to talk. We are the force, which has been chosen to fight, and we shall perform in the most effective manner.

I will be the first one to enter the battle and the last one to come out, and will do everything in my power to get you out alive and well. On Friday, with G-D's help, we will rejoin with our families. However, I cannot do it alone. Once we cross the northern border, you should exercise full alert and full responsibility toward your fellow soldier."

( IDF Golani Brigade commander, Cap. Uri Lavie to his troops before going into battle against Hizbullah: Ha'aretz, July 27, 2006)

(Hat tip: Judy Lash Balint)

Nice analogy for 1967. However this is 2006. (even in southeastern asia; misnomered the "middle east")Iran and Syria are waiting to jump froggy with israel and they both have the manpower to at least engage them to the point that Israel would have to commit significant troop levels to stop them.

Due to the quagmires in Irag and Afghanistan and the significant troop levels we have in both countries, America could only offer token support to Israel - maybe a few sorties and rear line troop support.

Additionally just because a culture says "never again" does not mean "never again" can't happen. Especially when engaging an enemy that gives nary a second thought to strapping on explosives and blowing themselves up and their enemies along with them in hopes of going to the afterlife and making love to 72 virgin quality Halle Berry prototypes forever and a day.

And just as Japan suckered punched America at Pearl Harbor during WWII, this would be a perfect opportunity for a meladramatic despotic Asian dictator who craves the attention the title of glorious world leader would give to him to come to the aid of their "asian brothers and sisters" and sucker punch Israel right in the groin. From that point it would get real serious.

I am an Israeli backer - since 1948 - I hope you are right - Israel is sacred to me: an Irish Roman Catholic. They are our only allies in this world of murderous terrorists. God Love them and Save them!

Israel says they need 10 to 14 more days in reports out in the last several hours. My take is that Isreal doesn't have 10 to 14 days. Their reserve callup in the latest round was limited to officers which might mean they are being given some intensive schooling right now on what the plan is and Israel will call up the rank and file only at they very last possible moment.

The callup of these reserves will be the tip-off. What bugs me is that Isreal seemed poised to do just the sort of attack you describe several days ago with a massing of troops on the Eastern border with Lebanon. These troops stood down after a night cabinet meeting and the followup daytime cabinet meeting presented a picture of indecision and possible disagreement between civilian and military leadership.

There is still considerable artillery fire from the Isreli side of the border. Maximum range of this artillery would be somewhere in the 20km range with accuracy dropping as you go further out. This would suggest they are probably engaging targets within 10km of the border.

If Israel has such a plan, I would say they need to get busy with it quickly.

You may be on to something. I've seen Benjamin Netanyahu on TV several times and I expected him to be very angry the IDF was not going all in to Southern Lebanon. But he has been oddly supportive of the current ops. He must know more than we do about the plan.

I read a couple books about the 73' war and the Israeli leadership were very vocal about what should be done - Dayan, Sharon, etc. were battling it out about how to win. But in this case things seem fairly subdued. At least so far.

In fact, the only ones begging for a ceasefire seem to be Hez, the Syrians and others. I guess we'll know in a couple weeks.

Isreal has decided to suspend operations for 48 hours. One thing being mentioned is the allowing into the area of "humanitarian aid". Israel should allow only evacuations, not additional supplies that will allow civilians to stay in the area longer.

Since Israel has now stopped operations, there is going to be considerable inertia preventing them cranking things back up. Israel has now lost all momentum. Hezbollah would be in the process of resupplying and rearming their positions in the South as I type this.

This break may make it impossible for a foreign force to come in and dislodge Hezbollah. They are being allowed time to rotate fresh fighters in, tired fighters out, and bring in new ammunition supplies and communications equipment.

The only reason Israel would do this would be if she felt she was nearing the end of what she had planned to do anyway. If Israel's military had planned to wipe out Hezbollah, then those plans would be pretty well thwarted by the politicians at this point. At least that is how it looks from here.

Logistics trains up to the border will continue. Israeli Air Forces ( men and material) will be replenished. The troops on the border will hopefully have a small rest. Israel gets to play the nice guy for providing a humaniatian break, while Hezbollah will probably not be able to resist an opportunity to throw more missiles over the border, thus violating the temporary halt ( which to me sounds a lot like a "cease fire", but Im not a diplomat) and further making Israels case as to who the belligerent party is in this matter.

We are all a bit anxious to see the end of Hezbollah, but we are far from the fight. I'll let those in it make the call as to what is best for them( meaning the Israelis). From what ive seen and heard, they deeply want a fight, but they only want a fight with a conclusion. With Arab armies, this is very difficult thing to get, which is why I proposed that Israels strategy is to get Hezbollah in a position where they would commit to an action that they could not get out of. I dont think Hezbollah is there just yet, but I think they are getting closer to over playing their hand with overconfidence.

I think this is going to play out one of two ways. It evolves into a full "cease fire", where NATO troops, such as France (stop laughing..) and Turkey come into Southern Lebanon as they have suggested at the behest of Israel and Lebanon. This would be a serious loss to Hezbollah, but I think its chances are slim to none. So long as they(France and turkey) have orders to shoot anyone that gets in their way, Im sort of ok with this. If they get sent into Lebanon with orders to not interfere, I have to wonder, whats the point?.

Or...

This is the last stop before an all out war, one that possibly could go far beyond Lebanon and Israel.

In the next 24 hours, I'm watching for the following:

1) Israeli Troop movements and further call ups of reserves.
2) Movements of Supplies or air forces of other Arab nations.
3) A serious change in momentum of the arab states to align against Israel.
4) Hezbollah to do something really stupid, like contining to fire missiles into Israel.

So far, the only territory that Hezbollah has captured is the upper half of newspapers, but in the war on terror, that is the high ground. The reason for Israel to do this, is to return to being the aggrieved party in this matter, which has been temporarily stolen from them by this mornings media event around the bombing of the hezbollah human shields.

I also think if hezbollah was winning, the Qana event would never have had the significance it does now.

One thing you're right about, you're not "a master expert in military strategy."

The rest of the armchair generals posting comments here ought to consider enlisting- then they'll get some real experience at war.