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Baalbek Raid successful - So where is Syria?

10 miles from the border with Syria in an area formerly occupied by Syria’s Armed forces, the IDF has landed commando troops, seized several high value targets and has managed to leave the area intact.

This is a serious slap in the face to Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. The Bekaa is the capital of terror operations in the eastern Mediterranean. Israel was able to accomplish its goals in the heart of where the terrorists should have the greatest amount of protection.

Earlier this week, Syria announced that it was placing its Army on alert. Let’s watch carefully to see what Syria does next.

Possible moves:

1) Syria moves its tanks and infantry into the Bekaa to protect its interests and save its honor.
2) Syria moves its tanks and infantry into the Bekaa by invitation of the Lebanese government, such as it is.
3) Syria doesn’t move its tanks and infantry into the Bekaa.

If any one of the three scenarios occurs it will be very illustrative of the real situation from the perspective of one of the most important players, that being Syria.

1) If Syria doesn’t move to protect their client, it will clearly cause problems with their key partners, the Iranians.
2) If Syria doesn’t move to protect their client, it will clearly cause problems with the Lebanese.
3) If Syria doesn’t move its Army after this, then why have one? If this situation doesn’t merit the movement of troops to protect syrian interests, then what does? Syria officially becomes a paper tiger in every way that matters.

but if they do move...

1) Then does Israel react to stop it or does it accept a Syrian incursion and open alliance with Hezbollah?

If they do move their Army, it will be very interesting to see what the Israeli response will surely be but then again if they don’t move it, the reaction from Iran should also be very interesting.

( If I don't see a line of Syrian tanks rolling into the Bekaa by morning, I think that will tell us alot about how things are going...)

Posted @ August 01, 2006 09:17 PM | Current Affairs

Comments

Israel has already won.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2006/07/tactics-strategy-grand-strategy.html

Syria is going down too (explained above).Very likely Iran as well.

Here is my Bekaa update with links to maps.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2006/08/lebanon-bekaa-attacks-maps.html

Posted by: M. Simon at August 1, 2006 10:29 PM

I predicted all this.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2006/07/tactics-strategy-grand-strategy.html

Posted by: M. Simon at August 1, 2006 10:30 PM

Israel is commited, I couldn't see anything but a total reponse on Syria if Syria moves into the fray. In that case, I hope they reduce the Presidental Palace to rubble.

So tomorrow tells the tale? I will be watching.

BTW I noticed an intensity on another battlefront. General Media has amplified his calls for a ceasefire. The leftists want to save the terrorists once again. They are too late. Bush probably has been informed of the total plan and I hope he will wait until it is accomplished.
I think he will not call this "Hail Mary" short. like his father. I seem to remember that he was opposed to that mistake.

Posted by: max muller at August 1, 2006 10:42 PM

I dont think that any diplomatic effort now can stop what is already underway. Israel is very close to accomplishing a "fait accompli". The only thing left to do is cut off any possible retreat to the north by hezbollah.

If Israel just lets hezbollah run north, it will be a hollow victory. If they cut them off and force them to either be destroyed or to surrender, then this will be the true end of hezbollah.

I was most interested in the high level of naval activity along the coast north of Tyre today.

Its all up to syria now. If they dont want to come out and play, it means that all the caterwauling we see on tv is just that, loud words but not much more.

If they do decide to come out and play, things will get very interesting very quickly.

Posted by: frank martin at August 1, 2006 11:47 PM

It was just a raid Frank, so your full analysis doesn'a apply. The ball is still high in the air as far as Syria is concerned.

Darn! USA may stop Israel before it gets to kill the snake.

Not again!!!

Posted by: max muller at August 2, 2006 03:21 PM

I don't think there's anything "just" about this raid. Look at the target. This is a hospital built by Iran, Hez has a history of using hospitals and other civilian structures as command centers, and the stated goal was major leaders. I think this hospital contained a major Hez command center (why else would they look for a major Hez leader there?). This was an intelligence raid. They went in hoping to find some bigwigs to interrogate, that didn't pan out. But they did get some low-ranking guys, if they're commo they're as good as the actual bosses. I'm also sure they got documents, which is also going to help. Finally after they pulled out they destroyed the place, which means Hez doesn't know what the IDF has.

Posted by: MMDeuce at August 2, 2006 06:58 PM

Update:
They were looking for the kidnapped soldiers. They had a tip they were being held in the hospital. It's all over the Israeli newspapers.

Posted by: max muller at August 3, 2006 12:03 AM