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The Year of the Missile

Don't get too comfortable in with the war in Lebanon as it now stands.

Here's whats happening. Despite the hard work of "General Media" to deter Israel from being effective, Israel is not being deterred in Lebanon and whats even better, shes not getting any real public sanction for her actions. Lots of finger wagging, but thats all. I think everyone is aware of what is going on here and who the players are. Hezbollah has used Lebanon, hijacked a country for its own use and has used the indigenous population as hostages to hide behind. Protests go on all over the world, everyone says "they support hezbollah" but not many of the protestors are getting in their cars and driving over to where the fighting is going on.

While lots of other people are upset that this didnt get wrapped up in the traditional style of the IDF, that being 72 hours from start to finish, I have to say - with all the deepest apologies to everyone involved, that it will take what it takes. (I still stand by my 14 day window by the way, and I still think the "line" will not be the Litani, but somewhere further north, somewhere around Sidon.)

Here's one thing to note. Syria hasnt moved. Syria hasnt moved to support Hezbollah, or Lebanon. Syria hasnt done a thing to effect the battlefield in any way that might get them attacked by Israel. Smuggling and resupply have occured, but Syria has cleary decided either this isnt the right time to fight, or they have decided not to fight at all. Ambassadors can prattle on and on all they want. If you dont move tanks or artillery, it means nothing.

But the real change in the last week has been Iran. Iran is no longer hiding behind its proxy, they have now spoken publically and said "yeah, we sent Hezbollah those missiles, what of it?"

So, Let's say I'm Israel. I take a look at the situation in the theatre and I see...

Saudi Arabia - Sitting tight.
Egypt - Sitting tight.
Jordan - Sitting tight
Syria - Sitting tight.
Lebanon - Neutral.
West Bank - Surprisingly quiet.
Gaza - Gone.

so now its down to:

Hezbollahland - Currently being enveloped and subdued. By my estimate - 10 more days and it will effectively be "Northern Gaza".

and who else does that leave?

Iran. But Iran isnt sitting tight this time, oh far from it. Iran just jumped out and said "We dont care to hide anymore - We are your enemy, we will resupply our allies in Hezbollahland, and we will send men and materials to fight you too!"

So, again, lets say I'm Israel. Do I ignore this threat? Do I stand by and allow a country to come right out and declare itself a combatant, and yet say nothing about it? Do I allow Iran to resupply with men and materials Lebanon without any action? Katushyas are a pain in the rear, but Iranian Farj are a real big problem because while I can take enough of Lebanon to keep the Katushyas down to a minimum, I cant keep enough Lebanese territory to keep the bigger missiles like the Farj down. The problem just moves further, and to compensate, the enemy brings missiles with more range into the game.

Oh, And theres a new problem.

Our newly exposed enemy - the Iranians - have been contracting with North Korea to make Taepodong missiles for export.

Taepodong-1 has the range to strike not just Israel, but Europe. And dont think for a second that Iran isnt going to make that threat clear to the Europeans.

Not from Lebanon - but from Iran itself.

Again. Let's say I'm Israel. So what do I do next?

Oh yeah,I forgot to mention the little fact that Iran was one of two countries to fight a war by throwing missiles at cities.

Remember the "Iran-Iraq" War? Remember the "War of the Cities"? I dont want to get off the subject here, but if you want to start talking about "atrocities", go read up on that little nightmare. By comparison, Israel is conducting a search warrant on Lebanon when you look at what Iran and Iraq did to each other back then.

So the situation is this:

Two weeks ago, Iran starts a proxy war against Israel, just 60 short days before the UN drops a boatload of sanctions on their already hapless economy. You and I dont think UN sanctions matter, but Iran seems mighty upset about it for it to "not matter". At the same time, Iran just happens to be testing a new long range missile with North Korea. North Korea needs money, Iran needs long range weapons, its a marriage made in heaven, right? Only the test didnt go so well now did it? It's not that they are walking away, its just that the timing in the original plan is just a little off now, thats all. Maybe Iran settled for the older, more reliable missiles instead? maybe...

So, again. let's say I'm Israel. I manage get the "land of the katushya" just about wrapped up when out of the sky over Tel Aviv comes the earsplitting sonic boom that occurs as the nosecone of the newly purchased North Korean missile reenters the lower atmosphere, the warhead explodes and destroys several city blocks without any warning.

So what does Israel do next?

Patriot and Arrow Missile defense systems will go into action, but there has to be more because the Israeli people will demand it. But remember that a week ago, Israel caught hell for hitting a building in a war zone that just happened to have women and children in it.

Now Israel will be hitting,not just a building, but entire city blocks. In Iran...

Imagine what the world reaction will be if Israel launches missiles to Iran in retaliation for a long range missile attack. And then imagine the missiles go back and forth for awhile.

Things have changed. This is now the "year of the missile" and none of us can ever go back to the way it was.

Posted @ August 04, 2006 08:53 PM | Current Affairs

Comments

> Do I allow Iran to resupply with men and materials Lebanon without any action?

Actually, there's precedent for it. China supplied Vietnam with weapons and training personnel for years and we did little more than glare at them for it.

Not to suggest that I disagree with your overall thesis. The chief question is whether Iran is stupid enough to invite Israel to have cause for attack. If they don't have a nuke, they're toast. If they do, they're still toast, but it'll be even uglier.

Posted by: Grepa at August 5, 2006 02:37 AM

How does Iran supply Hezbollah? Whose airspace are they using? Turkey's? Saudi Arabia's? I assume they're not flying over Iraq.

Posted by: Kim Hartveld at August 5, 2006 03:04 PM

Not in a straight line, but through an intermediaary certainly.

From North Korea - to Iran - To Sudan, to Yemen or Somalia( where customs officers are routinely bought per local custom), where the crates are then relabeled as 'Islamic Relief' bound for the Syrian port of Latakia on the Mediteranean, or by air to Tartous, then across the border into Lebanon. But instead of crates of powdered milk, its crate after crate of SA-7's and Katushyas.

for 7,000 years this area has been a trade route hub. I think the locals to that region know everything there is to know about the art and science to smuggling.

Posted by: frank martin at August 5, 2006 03:59 PM